Dont Bet the House England Fans!

The 2018 iteration of the Football World Cup has started with a roar for the Three Lions following their opening 2-1 victory over Africa’s number one team Tunisia. Following a blistering start where England should have perhaps scored four goals, the Tunisians were able to keep the scores level until late in the game when captain Harry Kane scored the winner. With an opening win in the bag England fans have begun to believe that maybe, just maybe, this is their year.

Despite making a winning start to a World Cup campaign for the first time since 2006, the victory over Tunisia was not quite the bellwether that many in the English press are making it out to be. Tunisia were clearly playing for a draw, with a possible victory over Panama in their last group game then giving them a chance at progressing from the group. They gave a lot of possession to England, particularly in the second half, and after scoring their equaliser rarely committed players forward to attack the English goal. This was a missed opportunity – the English back five (which was often a back three due to their wing-backs committing heavily to the attack) were suspect when put under pressure and they could have been made to pay.

Tunisia made perhaps four serious forays into the English penalty are during the game, with one of those resulting in a goal following centreback Kyle Walker being penalised for obstructing Ben Youssef in the box. On another they should have scored following a misunderstanding between Ashly Young and Jesse Lingard. If Tunisia can put England under this kind of pressure with only 40 per cent of possession and hold them level with a third-choice goalkeeper for 90 minutes, will the ghosts of Euro 2016 come back to haunt them in the knock-out stages? This pundit is arguing yes, they will, under the pressure of a world-class front four that they are likely to meet in the Round of 16.

Jordan Pickford was largely untested against Tunisia and will certainly face a greater examination from Belgium. It is interesting that in the last Everton vs Manchester United game where Pickford faced Romelu Lukaku, Manchester United ran out 4-0 winners. However, it is the five men in front of him that looked the most suspect against Tunisia. World Cups are won with a strong defence, and these lads just aren’t there. Kieran Trippier looked good going forward from right wing-back and is certainly a danger from the set piece. However, like Young on the opposite flank, he has been caught out of position easily by a swift counter-attack – the type of attack you’re likely to see from Spain, Brazil and France. That leaves the three centre backs exposed, and they are the soft, chewy centre of this entire English team.

Kyle Walker has a lot to learn about being a first-rate international centre back. Aside from his foul that resulted in Tunisia’s goal, he was also caught woefully out of position with his body facing towards goal. This is very unusual for a centre back and typically something that is coached out in the junior football. There is only one way a header is going when you’re facing that way and that is towards goal. John Stones, famed for his calmness on the ball, is a good distributer. However, when put under sustained pressure he can lose his head. We’ve seen in in the EPL and I’m yet to be convinced that he is a world-class centreback. Harry Maguire is the next best option for Gareth Southgate, but he was guilty of conceding possession in dangerous areas against Tunisia, a fact that will be punished by better teams. Indeed, if Tunisia had been willing to commit even a couple of men forward they could have really made a game of it in the first stanza of the second half. How will he manage Eden Hazard and Kevin de Bruyne or Isco and that pit-bull Diego Costa? I get the feeling the dog will eat him alive.

The Three Lions have every chance to get to the quarter-finals given Germany’s tribulations in Group F, but can they defeat the team waiting there? It could possibly be Brazil, and just like he did in the EPL Philippe Coutinho will have great fun in the pockets created by the focus on Neymar. Suffice to say, don’t bet the house on England winning the World Cup English fans, but sit back and enjoy the ride. You have the attackers to give you some serious entertainment, but your defence is likely to give you nightmares. Let’s just hope there are no shades of the 2018 Champions League final!